The overshoot allows the heat pump to increase flow temperature within the set range to allow it to keep running. If it didn’t increase flow temperature it would have to shut down.
This mitigates short cycling as Stephen says when the heat produced can’t be delivered to the home, generally because the emitters are at their limit at the requested flow temperature.
What flow temperature are you running when it is something like 7c outside?
I am running straight LWT at the moment, no WD curve or Madoka influence. I am at 36c (in theory) as going any lower uses no less electricity. Plus these heat pumps don’t seem very happy at really low flow temperatures.
I find the heat pump takes so long to get into its stride that it is better to just leave it running.
I use no more electricity this way than turning it on and off.
I turn off the heat pump if we are out for a few hours, the house doesn’t lose much heat and it warms up quickly in any case.
I am controlling the house temperature with windows, sad, but it is what I am doing.
Based on my experience with this heat pump, the knowledge gained here and the size of your house I am certain your radiators are way too small to run efficiently at low flow temperatures.
It may well be that you can make it work in terms of overall energy consumption but the COP can never be good.
Your heat loss is probably the same or more than mine judging by what you have said, your house is bigger than mine and I doubt it is any better insulated than my house. Your downstairs is as big as my whole house.
I think Stephen’s house is about the same size as yours and he was getting a 9kW but ended up with an 11kW, not that it makes any difference and he’s actually better off with the 11kW, they should just give everybody the 16kW, you lose nothing.
It should work, there are just not enough/big enough radiators for this heat pump.
I would try and find out what they say your heat loss actually is and try and verify it, either yourself or with another heat loss survey from somebody other than Octopus, somebody reputable.
Then you will know how to proceed.