Matched Clean Power Index - How Green is Your Tariff?

All,

I’m a first-time poster, but long-time reader.

While digging into public data I found a way to track the renewable power that suppliers buy on our behalf - half-hour by half-hour. Using data from Ofgem, Elexon, and NESO, and with input from over 30 experts - including several suppliers - I’ve pieced together a clear picture of the power we are served.

Here’s how it looks for Octopus over the year ending April 2025, in which they served power that was 69% renewable. The purple line shows the demand (i.e. the energy sold to customers), and the coloured areas show the renewables they buy on our behalf (mostly wind).

Zooming in, you can see the daily shape of demand, and how it interacts with the intermittency of renewables:

Octopus buys from 1,821 generators - exclusively from 890 of them - including 5 MWh over the course of the year from Hove Park School :school: :sun::

Octopus delivers 69% renewables on nearly 30 TWh/yr which is pretty remarkable. And when I add nuclear, the clean power score will be even higher.

Ecotricity and Good Energy are a lot smaller (1.7 TWh/yr and 0.4 TWh/yr) but do even better. And the trading team at So Energy helped me rate their renewable tariff (0.7 TWh/yr) too, which also comes out well:

You can explore the full results here. There’s been a lot of confusion around “100% renewable” claims because the current system allows winter gas consumption to be offset with summer solar. The approach I’ve taken here works with the same systems - REGOs, half-hourly settlement - but does the accounting properly, half-hour by half-hour, like the power market itself.

I hope this helps rebuild trust in renewable supply - and show just how far we’ve come in the last decade. Next steps: adding nuclear, and giving a matching score without biomass.

Comments and questions welcomed :slight_smile:

Joe

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Hi Joe,

Which did something similar a while back, how does your more up to date results compare to with them?

Answering my own question (should have first looked)Which ”do their own arbitrary assessment on several criteria. I won’t post a screen capture in case they get funny on copyright But there’s no actual data on Which’s rating.

Excellent work! I realise that this is a slight irrelevance in respect of Green Tariffs, but that doesn’t account for all the power that’s used locally, rather than exported to the grid. I don’t know if any figures on that are available anywhere, it’s all in different cloud-based systems. It does however mean that the overall renewables picture is even rosier/greener!

Yes — though valuable, the work by Which? and others has mostly been a workaround for the fact that there’s never been a clear, data-based measure of the power suppliers actually deliver.

That’s the gap the Clean Power Index fills.

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Yes! We’re only measuring power imported from the grid. Total consumption, especially amongst the demographic on this forum :wink:, will be larger and cleaner!

Thanks Joe,

It’s very interesting work you’ve done. I’ve read your presentation from the Oxford Energy Seminar and watched the presentation on YouTube but I’ve still got questions.

You’ve entitled your talk The Billion Pound Opportunity…. BUT where does the billion come from, how should that be spent most effectively in the system and where is it going now, is one of the answers batteries everywhere, and what other answers should there be?

I totally agree that if we’re paying £80 per year more for a green tariff, then we should get what we’re paying for, and not green washing. I particularly liked your demo of anonymous suppliers and their operation model, (just buy a block of Regos in summer versus match more evenly).

It’s an opaque market, but in recent years the market for renewable claims (REGOs) has been sized at over £1bn (for example, here).

This market currently does nothing to recognise, let alone incentivise, the storage and flexibility that is necessary for Clean Power 2030 - but there is growing recognition that it should. And that starts by tracking renewable power properly, hour by hour!