Can you model daily heat requirement from building parameters & environmental sensors?

I’ve just been directed here after a discussion on BuildHub (Has anyone tried comparing actual ASHP performance with their heat loss calcs? - Page 2 - Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHP) - and hoping others might have already solved what I am attempting.
In short, I was so dissapointed by the ASHP power usage in my new “energy neutral” house refurb that I tried to model what it should be doing. I’ve got Home Assistant gathering data from the APIs of my ASHP, MVHR, UFH, Zappi & Octopus, so I’ve got daily data of pretty much all the variables. The house was recently refurbished using a good architect & builder so I’ve got full data on thermal design.
Why is my modelled heat requirement so much lower that MELCloud’s reported output, despite it being pretty good at predicting when heating isn’t needed?
Can anyone point me in the right direction or share their wisdom?

Hi David, welcome.

Cannot really answer your question, but have a good read around as there are lots of knowledgeable folk here and lots of HeatPump threads.

If you have a spare Pi/VM you can install Emoncms on, it can take the data from your HA instance and provide some interesting information on performance.